How does the Magic Wall help you identify shifts as results come in on election night?
This is year 18 now, believe it or not, and we learn from each election and add new tools. The shifts during election night counting are there for everyone to see — states or counties switching from red to blue, or blue to red on live television (sometimes mid-sentence) as votes are tallied and the lead switches back and forth. My job then is to dive in and explore why.
For longer-term shifts, our great New Media team is always testing and improving tools to help. History is a frequent go-to: How did this state or county or congressional district vote last time? Or when was the last election in which the other party won? But we can also show shifts in demographics, education levels, the cost of living and more. We can show vote counts over time on Election Day to explain how the quick release of early vote tabulations can sometimes produce surprising initial results, like Joe Biden leading in Oklahoma and Texas in 2020 for a short while. The “magic” is that you can follow your curiosity and somewhere there is a data point or Wall application that will help you answer why things are changing.
How do you balance providing historical context with explaining developments in real time?
What I love most about election nights is the unpredictability of it all. Early on, maybe you can plan a smart “historical context” discussion. But when the live results come in, our No. 1 job is to follow the breaking news and deliver the biggest results as they happen. A midterm night is in many ways more complicated than a presidential election. There are no scripts because we have no idea what is coming or when it is coming. So, my rule is following the news and add the history when it is part of that news — when the context helps viewers better understand the “real-time” math they are seeing.
Is there a memorable moment when the Magic Wall changed how you understood or explained a race?
There are too many to count over the last 18 years. But two stand out.
The very first night for me at the Wall was New Hampshire primary night 2008. Senator Obama had a big early lead, and a lot of the chatter was that he would win big and essentially clinch the nomination that night. But we were able to use the Wall tools to show how much of the vote was still to be counted in Manchester and other places where Senator Clinton had deep support — showing that it would be tough, yes, but she still had a chance to win because of where the outstanding votes were. And in the end, she did win.
Then, early election night 2016. Remember Secretary Clinton was heavily favored. But when the polls first closed in Kentucky, the rural turnout for Trump was eye-popping. It was no surprise that the Republican was going to win Kentucky. But he was running stronger than Romney in 2012 or McCain in 2008 or Bush in 2000 or 2004. I was able to use the Wall to show similar rural counties in battlegrounds: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. To make the point that if what we see here in Kentucky happens across rural America, then we are in for a very competitive night.
Viewers can access the same interactive tools you use on air. Are there any features, races or trends you hope subscribers explore on election night?
Before the night gets chaotic, use the tools to compare where you live with a few other places on the map and dig into the demographic tools to help you understand why they are similar or different. Start with education levels, it will get chaotic. Then, pick a handful of places or races you want to follow most closely. For me, the first question is: Are Democrats performing well enough to take the House? There are four House races in Pennsylvania that will help answer that early in the night, including one that is the first good look at how Hispanic voters are shaping the midterms.
If Democrats are doing well, question two is: are they doing well enough for a blue wave that also flips the Senate? Maine and North Carolina are the early-time-zone building blocks of that answer and then we wait for the Midwest: Iowa, Michigan and Ohio. Which will tell us if we then need to wait for Texas (Kansas?) and Alaska.
And if the Democrats are struggling despite the overwhelmingly favorable climate, then hunt for clues as to why.
But most of all, enjoy the journey. That is the true “magic” of the Magic Wall.
Comments
Post a Comment