Hurricane season is off to a quick start

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🌀 Hurricane season has started. Here's what our weather team says you should know

— From CNN supervising meteorologist and climate beat leader Brandon Miller:

As we head into the dog days of summer, the hot, hazy weather may bring thoughts of barbecues and pool days. But for those who live along the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines, it also means hurricane season is ramping up.

So what should you expect this season?

Forecasting experts back in May called for a "near-normal" hurricane season with 12 to 17 named tropical storms, five to nine of which could become hurricanes. They expect as many as four of those could strengthen into major hurricanes — Category 3 or stronger.

"If temperatures continue to run hot through the next couple months, it will certainly raise the prospect of seeing numerous major hurricanes."

- Brandon Miller, supervising meteorologist

But the hurricane season has gotten off to a quick start since it began on June 1, already notching three named tropical storms more than five weeks earlier than in a normal season.

Record-hot ocean temperatures in the Atlantic allowed tropical storms Bret and Cindy to form in an area in the deep tropics that normally doesn't spawn storms until much later in the season. If temperatures continue to run hot through the next couple of months, it will certainly raise the prospect of numerous major hurricanes.

It's a solid bet that at least one of those major hurricanes could strike the United States, considering recent history. Six Category 4 or 5 hurricanes have made landfall on the US mainland since 2017 — the most ever during a six-year period.

With that in mind, our weather team has everything you need to know to stay on top of this hurricane season and whatever may be in store.

When is the "peak" of hurricane season?

— From CNN meteorologist Jennifer Gray:

September 10 has become a bit of an unofficial holiday for meteorologists because it's the statistical peak of hurricane season. In the eight weeks from mid-August through mid-October, conditions are prime for hurricanes to form and strengthen.

"Our staff stays close to home these months and definitely doesn't plan any faraway vacations."

- Jennifer Gray, meteorologist

During that time, Atlantic Ocean temperatures are nearing their highest levels, and wind shear, which can blow budding hurricanes to pieces, lessens considerably. This is why nearly 90% of all hurricane activity in the Atlantic happens during this eight-week span.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association has calculated the likelihood of a tropical storm or hurricane being present in the Atlantic Basin on a given date.

Our staff stays close to home these months and definitely doesn't plan any faraway vacations. We mentally prepare for long days and look at weather models ad nauseam.

How is climate change impacting hurricanes?

— From CNN senior climate editor Angela Fritz:

Here's a surprise: The climate crisis is not causing more storms to develop in the Atlantic. But it is altering them in other, more insidious ways.

The two clearest ways hurricanes have changed is that they now hold more moisture, which means more flooding rainfall, and their storm surges are higher because the sea level has gone up.

From satellite imagery, you can see how quickly Hurricane Michael, which made landfall as a Category 5 storm in October 2018, became more defined and organized as it approached the coast. (NOAA/CIRA)

Both of those changes are directly tied to planet-warming pollution. And that's a scary thought, that our actions are amping up rainfall and storm surge — because those are the top ways people die in hurricanes.

Even though we imagine these storms as giant monsters of wind that blow roofs off homes and bend trees sideways, nearly 90% of all hurricane deaths since the 1960s have been caused by water — things like coastal storm surge and inland flooding from rainfall.

"Hurricanes are getting stronger faster, which means we have less time to prepare or evacuate."

- Angela Fritz, senior climate editor

Unfortunately, that's just the tip of the melting iceberg.

Scientists are also learning that hurricanes are now more likely to slow down and stall in a single location, kind of like what Hurricane Harvey did over Texas in 2017. Hurricanes are also maintaining more of their strength after they make landfall and start to track over land.

And, maybe most alarmingly, hurricanes are getting stronger faster, which means we have less time to prepare or evacuate before a major storm.

What are some lessons learned in the field?

— From CNN field meteorologist Derek Van Dam:

One of the most important things you can do in the lead-up to a hurricane is to prepare yourself and your family for evacuation. When officials give warning of a potential landfall in your area, you should already have your emergency kit packed, cell phones charged, your gas tank filled and your evacuation route mapped out. You do not want to be mobile as the storm makes its final approach. Emergency services are typically halted once sustained winds reach tropical storm force (39 mph or more). This means if you are caught in a dangerous situation as conditions deteriorate, you won't have the opportunity for rescue or assistance until after the storm passes.

Destruction from Hurricane Ian is shown in Fort Myers Beach, Florida, in October 2022. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

There are steps you can take to brace yourself for impact if the hurricane made an unexpected turn and you're stuck riding out the storm at home. In my experience, securing fresh water, non-perishable food and a first-aid kit should be your top priority. These supplies may not be available in the storm zone for days, if not weeks, after a hurricane strikes. By filling your bathtub with water, you'll have access to bathing and cleaning for days after basic services are cut off by the storm. If time permits, secure outdoor furniture and make sure your animals have proper identification attached to them.

"One of the most important things you can do in the lead-up to a hurricane is to prepare yourself and your family for evacuation."

- Derek Van Dam, field meteorologist

After a storm, it's imperative that you avoid standing water. Not only is standing water a breeding ground for bacteria and disease, but it also may have live electrical wires hidden beneath. If you do venture outside to assess for damage, make sure you have thick-soled boots on, as there will be glass, exposed nails and debris that could hurt you. If you did evacuate, wait until you are given the all-clear to return by the authorities. There may be hidden dangers that you may not be aware of like gas leaks and contaminated water.

Are there buzzwords everyone should know?

After Hurricane Irma, a house slides into the Atlantic Ocean in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, in September 2017. (Gary Lloyd McCullough/The Florida Times-Union/AP)

— From CNN meteorologist Chad Myers:

Every hurricane season, meteorologists reach into their vocabulary bag and pull out terms used only a few times a year. Whether you live on the East or West coast, here are a few to know:

Hurricane landfall: Landfall is the official term for the moment and location that the center of the storm crosses from the water to a coastline. This may seem simple, but the fact is that half of the hurricane has already crossed land by this time. That means the storm has likely done significant damage before the actual "landfall" is called.
Forecast cone: For viewers who look at the cone and say, "OK, that misses me," wait just a minute here. The National Hurricane Center says, "Based on forecasts over the previous five years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time." Yes, 60-70% of the time — which means 30-40% may deviate from that cone. That is how they draw it based on previous years' forecast accuracy. As the accuracy of the forecasts has gone up, the cone has gotten smaller, but it remains at "60-70% of the time." Keep that in mind the next time you are close to the cone.
Rapid intensification: Rapid intensification happens when a storm's wind speed increases by 30 knots (35 mph) in any 24-hour period. A series of aligning meteorological factors is needed to get this rapid increase in wind speed.
El Niño: Hurricanes thrive in warm water, which is why one may expect an above normal tropical season, but El Niño creates wind shear in the Atlantic that tries to tear those storms apart. Like my cat Thunder, hurricanes like to be left alone and not jostled around. If El Niño can jostle the developing storms just enough, our season has a possibility of being below average. Just watch out for the claws.

How does the team plan storm coverage?

— From CNN executive weather producer Dave Hennen:

During the days leading up to a hurricane — and on the day it strikes — me and many of my colleagues are often in the "war room," a conference room located in the CNN newsroom. That area of CNN is a beehive of activity, but controlled chaos when a hurricane threatens. The room is full and represented by dozens of people from different departments from all over the organization.

The war room name is appropriate, because covering a hurricane is very much like a military operation. The "troops" that are reporters, producers and photographers form the front line of coverage. They are backed up by hundreds of support people back at CNN who plan for and support those deployed to the storm.

"The safety of our people is our highest priority."

- Dave Hennen, executive weather producer

Planning starts on a whiteboard. Locations are written and changed frequently as the storm moves in one direction or another. Giant sticky notes hold the names of reporters, producers and crews and are moved and assigned to locations like pieces to a puzzle. Old-school paper maps fill the walls with more sticky notes that give the expected time of arrival and strength.

Hurricane planning takes place in a "war room," with sticky notes holding the names of reporters, producers and crews.

If a storm suddenly changes direction, old locations are erased, and new ones are added. Producers on the ground who were in the old location now must drive hours in another direction to find a new perfect and safe spot.

Hundreds of "boots on the ground" are deployed for a storm like Katrina. Gas trucks, trucks loaded with food and water, and security personnel, just to name a few, form a convoy that stays slightly away from the storm path to be able to refuel and supply food and water to those working on the front lines, where devastation often means no electricity or water.

Crew safety is a common thread for all storms big and small. Only the most-seasoned field producers, reporters and anchors are sent to the hardest-hit areas. Dozens of side meetings take place to ensure hotels are strong enough to withstand a hurricane's winds and are also above the projected storm surge height. Crews on the beach have a backup location to fall back to in case of danger. The safety of our people is our highest priority.

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- Edited and produced by Kyle Almond, Tricia Escobedo and Kimberly Richardson